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2016-08-17_Agenda Packet--Dossier de l'ordre du jour Expectations August 17, 2016 Context and 2020 Council Priority Setting - 2016 goals achieve their investments and services the they can what changes do we envision for our Saint John outcomes Saint John citizens and on on the direction for the next four years to achieve a desired ocus FcommunitySet future for Relate to people and are at the heart of what we do in terms of public service delivery Focus they want and need so that Council Priorities desired Achieve future for Saint John - Based Budget Service Plan Annual Report / Strategic Scorecard Corporate Priorities Strategic Decision Making by: economic - źƓŅƚƩƒĻķ of Council Priorities engagement* outlook citizen responsibilities of revenue sources and operating commitments economic based - trends and research that include growth, inflation, verall ey egislative OKReview LBroad sustainability, population projections and socioconditions Priority Setting Approach Collaborative creation places and the the tƌğƓ{W opportunities face - hǒƩ {ğźƓƷ WƚŷƓ to participate of the strategy at community gathering marketing/communication and convenience of program existing engagement and research results in the citizen awareness of engagement opportunities comprehensive, inclusive, and provide multiple Be opportunities across multiple channels Ensure access by locating engagement events Ensure through extensive Embed opportunities for education of City services in engagement Focus dialog on the community vision guiding principles outlined in the municipal plan Leverage development and implementation Engagement Strategy Principles all initiatives ensures representation (e.g., line tool - person event(s) - Past engagement research Focus group business, social, youth, immigrants)InOnCitizen surveyCivic partnersCity of Saint John employees Internal Inclusive Synthesis Reflection & EngagementEngagement Engagement* Representative Engagement Strategy Activities map large city gatherings places opportunities) person Events - aim for 5 locations) on sticky notes that could be attached mocracy - note where they lived on a capitalize on existing community with (comments number of citizens who were engaged to interact catching Facilitators - large recording sheets, dot asy EyeEto Locate/schedule to (libraries, malls, events, bus stops Record the Encourage participants to Answer questions and provide support to participants Encouraged to attend and interact with participants Inclusive Engagement: In Engagement DesignStaff Members of Council person Events - Inclusive Engagement: In Next Previous Line Tool - Inclusive Engagement: On itizen Survey C incorporating the results of all engagement Council Priorities (outcomes) and Services Statically valid and controlled approach to engagementTwo parts (importance/satisfaction)Results will provide the basis for developing themes for priority setting activities Inclusive Engagement: Oct 17 Adopt Council Priorities Council Meeting Oct 11 Week of Obtaining agreement on objectives and KPIs Priority Setting Session 3 Sep 26 Confirming outcomesDeveloping measurable objectives Identifying potential KPIsInterim review* Week of Priority Setting Session 2 Week of Engagement results*Defining outcomes Sep 12** Priority Setting Session 1 Sep 8 3 hours Sep 1 to Deliver engagement program Engagement responsibilities 2 hours Aug 31 Review of revenue sources and operating commitmentsLegislative Citizen surveyFinalize engagement strategy* Aug 25 to Context SessionEngagement Aug 17 Dates to be confirmed by Common CouncilContext Sessions Priority Setting Sessions Depending on progress a fourth session may be required with adoption planned for October 31 Timelines Economic OutlookState of the Saint John EconomyTrends Context Session bƚƷĻƭʹ Expectations August 17, 2016 Context and 2020 Council Priority Setting - 2016 PEOPLE INNOVATION CAPITAL INFRASTRUCTURE AGILITY New Brunswick’s Economic Growth Plan: Why growth is imperative New Brunswick’s Economic Growth Plan: Why growth is imperative August 2016 Published by: Executive Council Office Government of New Brunswick P. O. Box 6000 Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5H1 Canada Printed in New Brunswick ISBN 978-1-4605-1114-5 (print edition) ISBN 978-1-4605-1115-2 (PDF: English) 10655 I. Why does New Brunswick need a growth plan? Here in New Brunswick, we have made great progress Figure 1: Percentage of households with access to 25 as a province throughout the 20th Century. Imagine:Mbps broadband infrastructure or higher (2014)  In 1960, per-capita personal income was 40 per cent less than the Canadian average. By 2014, this gap had narrowed to 11 per cent.  In 1976, 15.5 per cent of us earned low incomes. 1 By 2011, this rate had gone down to 5.8 per cent.  While unemployment is still too high, more of us are working than ever before. In the past 30 years, only one other province achieved a faster increase in the workforce employment rate (the percentage of adults with a job) than New Brunswick.  Not that long ago, the only modern four-lane high-Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report, October 2015 ways were in Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton. Today, we have more than 750 km of four-lane high- According to Statistics Canada’s 2014 Canadian Com- way; two key corridors, Route 1 and Route 2 (the munity Health Survey, 93.4 per cent of us have a regu- Trans-Canada Highway) have been twinned from lar doctor – the highest rate among the provinces. end to end.  Our airports and seaports are far more advanced Our standard of living is much better. Our quality of life now than several decades ago. The Greater Moncton is higher. We are living longer than ever. Our steward- International Airport can accommodate the largest ship of the environment has improved substantially. cargo planes. The Port of Belledune has joined the Port of Saint John in providing ice-free port service. We rank third among the 10 provinces for the percent- age of households with access to high-speed broad- band infrastructure (Figure 1).  Until the 1960s, the quality of schools, hospitals and social services throughout New Brunswick varied widely, depending on the strength of the local tax base and other factors. Wealthier areas enjoyed more fewer or poorer quality services. Then came Equal Opportunity. Today, we have access to a wide range of quality public services regardless of where we live. 1 CANSIM Table 202-0802. 1 New Brunswick had a promising start to the 21st cen-spending in the province. The large private investment tury. The economy was growing. Employment was increasing. Businesses were investing. From 2000 to and industry trends continued. The other provinces 2007 more than $8 billion was invested in large-scale emerged with at least some growth and net new em- projects. The introduction of natural gas brought a ployment. Our economy, however, remained stagnant and so did employment. peak in terms of its economic contribution and jobs. We became a hotbed for customer contact centres and -Deeper dive: The impact of the Canadian dollar munications infrastructure and a bilingual workforce. on our economy The Information Technology (IT) sector was growing, and we were at the front end of a substantial expan-We depend on the United States as an export mar- sion of public- and private-sector research spending ket more than all other provinces. In 2015, 90 per that doubled investments in R&D between 2000 and cent of our international merchandise exports (by value) went to the United States. The ongo- balanced its books and, along with all other provinces, to the American dollar creates challenges for our government transfers.economy. In January 2001, $1 Cdn was worth 62 cents U.S. By November 2011, the value of the But there were storm clouds in the distance. For de-Canadian dollar had skyrocketed by 78 per cent cades, a surplus of workers meant that industries did to $1.10 U.S., but by May 2016, $1 Cdn had fallen not have to worry about recruiting and retaining em-back down to 76 cents U.S. ployees. Then came the 2001 Census, which projected the province was on the cusp of an unprecedented high. On the other hand, they can generate above- population declined from the previous census taken in 1996. The government responded by creating a popu-low. In the long run, New Brunswick exporters lation growth strategy. Addressing these challenges became the focus of the government in 2006 as it at currency conversion rates in the range of $1 Cdn targeted a 100,000-increase in the population by 2026.being worth 80 to 85¢ U.S. When the Canadian dol- lar is weak, exporters should invest in productivity A range of economic and demographic challenges all improvements to help sustain their business when came together in the mid-2000s. The labour market the dollar is stronger. was tightening. Many of the industries that had sus- tained growth were showing signs of weakness. The In the longer term, New Brunswick exporters must Canadian dollar was rising, eroding the competitive-diversify their markets to be less reliant on the ness of key industries such as tourism. Manufacturing United States. was beginning to feel increased global competition. Mining was in decline and was set to drop even fur- ther with the closure of the Bathurst-area Brunswick Between 2008 and 2014, real gross domestic product Mines. The customer contact centre and national back (GDP) – the broadest measure of the economy – de- clined in New Brunswick by 0.1 per cent. During the workers. Several large forestry mills closed and were dismantled. Forestry lost one-half of its value to the and nine per cent on Prince Edward Island. provincial economy in just a few short years. The number of people working has also declined. This left New Brunswick’s economy in a weak position We had 6,800 fewer people working in 2014 than in when the recession hit in 2008. After the recession, the 2008. Manufacturing alone shed 5,200 workers. By federal government decreased its direct and indirect The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 2 comparison across the country nearly 800,000 more has pushed up public debt levels not seen in more people were working in 2014 than in 2008.than 50 years. Business investment has gone down by nearly $1 bil-Our quality of life and standard of living will be in lion per year. Many of the industries that created jobs jeopardy if we cannot return to solid and sustained in the early 2000s are now cutting jobs.economic and population growth. Our population younger than 45 has declined steadily Figure 2: Number of New Brunswickers younger than – dropping by 84,000 between 2000 and 2014. This is 45 in the workforce (000s) more than the population of Saint John. younger than 45 participating in our workforce as there were in 2014 (Figure 2). During the same period, the number of people younger in this age group in the national workforce swelled by more than 2.5 million. The weak economy is hampering the ability of govern- ment to fund needed public services. The pressure on government to continue to provide quality public services and infrastructure at a time of stagnant growth Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282-0002 New Brunswick is beginning to witness positive eco-Setting the Stage: The role of government to foster nomic trends and recent successes that will position economic growth the province for further economic growth. A primary objective of government must be to restore Last year New Brunswick’s economy grew at its fast-growth and create jobs. We must realize the status quo est rate since 2010 and is showing signs of continued is not acceptable. If nothing changes, eventually all growth into 2016.of us will be hurt one way or another. What is holding Average weekly earnings have increased by 2.7 per us back? We have already taken steps to address our cent since 2014, compared to Canadian growth of 1.8 per cent. proof of the steady gains in the economy but there is Retail sales have increased for 11 of the last 12 quar-more to do. The climate is right for economic growth. We need to take bold steps and work in partnership per cent, the highest quarterly growth rate since continue the recent positive economic growth trends. New Brunswick has the best Internet access in the Address the PEOPLE challenge: Reverse the shrinkAddress the PEOPLE challenge: Reverse the shrinkAddress the PEOPLE challenge: Reverse the shrink- with average download speeds of around 27 Mbps, ing workforce. Even as we face relatively high unem- according to a report from the Canadian Internet ployment, we cannot be distracted from the problem Registration Authority.of our shrinking workforce. We will not return to Fredericton, Moncton and Saint John were ranked sustained growth without a deliberate and focused as three of the four most cost competitive cities in Canada to do business, as reported in KPMG’s those younger than 40. Competitive Alternatives 2016 report.Address the INNOVATION gap: Our companies, in- stitutions and governments spend less on R&D as a share of GDP than all other provinces. We rank near the bottom among the provinces for innovation capacity. If we want to return to sustained growth, 3 investment capital to foster growth. We need to Deeper dive: We need to embrace the global ensure that entrepreneurs across the province have economy access to a broad range of private capital sources to spur investment and economic growth. New Brunswick is a small province. Most of the  Address the strategic economic INFRASTRUCTURE products we consume – from food to consumer challenge: We must invest in infrastructure that products like electronics and vehicles – are not fosters competitiveness and stimulates private- produced here. To have a strong and growing sector growth. We are committed to investing – from economy, we must export products and services gateway infrastructure like ports and airports to across Canada and beyond. At the same time, innovation-enabling infrastructure – to drive com- global competition for export markets, investment petitiveness and growth. and talent has never been greater. There are global  Address the government’s AGILITY challenge: We must become more agile in how we work with in- we are ready. We cannot pretend we are immune dustry and more proactive in our focus on economic development. There are many ways government can the global economy. We must attract investment be more nimble and promote a more positive busi- and talent from around the world.ness climate while ensuring growth is consistent with social, environmental, aboriginal and community objectives. It can cut red tape. It can improve pro- we must expand investment in research, foster in-curement. It can take less time to make decisions. novative companies and invest in the infrastructure that will make us a smarter province.to build a compelling value proposition that convinces  Address the CAPITAL gap: Ensure there is enough companies to invest here. II. What do we want to achieve? We want New Brunswick to be a place where people We have proven we can compete and win in the global who work hard can get ahead.economy. There are examples all over the province of entrepreneurs who have built globally competitive We want New Brunswick to be a place where entre-businesses. We have attracted global companies to in- preneurial risk is rewarded by new wealth creation.vest in our natural resource-based and our knowledge- based industries. We must build on these examples. We We want New Brunswick to be a place where people, where families can thrive; and where new Canadians can prosper. If the New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan is success-bring New Brunswick back to a strong rate of economic ful, what are we hoping to achieve in the short term? growth. The Government of New Brunswick needs a What will a growing and vibrant New Brunswick look growing tax base/economic foundation on which to like in 2020? We need to focus our talent development, raise enough revenue to fund quality public services economic development, innovation investments and and public infrastructure. other activities of the provincial government to help The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 4 People The workforce is expanding and the province has returned to net employment growth. The economy will expand again, driving new employment in export-oriented and local services-oriented sectors. The population is returning to solid growth – particularly among those 40 and young- er. Increasing the number of younger New Brunswickers is critical to supporting long- term growth. Innovation Investment in R&D is increasing. Entrepreneurs are building innovative start-ups. New Brunswick companies are investing in competitiveness. Capital here. Start-up companies and fast-growing entrepreneurs have access to capital. Infrastructure The $150 million set aside by the provincial government each year for strategic in- vestments is renewing key public- and private-sector infrastructure. New innovation- boosting infrastructure has been built around the province. Agility Government has become more agile. Decisions have been made that put the pro- stable and quality public services and infrastructure can be maintained. It is easier to start a business. Red tape has been reduced and the time it takes to get permits and other approvals has gone down. Many regulations that impact business across the Maritimes Provinces have been harmonized. Government decision-making occurs in a more timely fashion. Deeper dive: GDP growth, taxes and public services If the economy is not growing, it becomes more program spending was equivalent to only 16.2 per cent of that province’s GDP, compared to 24.1 per services. For example, the Saskatchewan government cent of GDP in New Brunswick. This represents our spent $11,558 per person on programs in 2014-15. province’s fundamental challenge. If the economy -is not growing and creating higher-value economic son on programs. While per-capita spending was ac-activity, it becomes harder to pay for public services tually more in Saskatchewan, provincial government and infrastructure. 5 In the longer term, a sustained focus on the elements  our CAPITAL challenge: of the New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan is meant to – by attracting private-sector investment based on create a strong economic foundation and the basis for a the strength of our business climate. high quality of life for all of us. We will have addressed: our INFRASTRUCTURE challenge: – by making a long-term commitment to invest-  our PEOPLE challenge:ing in infrastructure that will ensure industries – by growing our workforce,continue to invest here and talent from around – by providing more targeted training and skills the world will come to call our province home.  our AGILITY challenge: – – by increasing the speed at which government returning New Brunswickers settling here.responds to economic opportunities, changing  our INNOVATION challenge:global markets and our citizens within a sustain- – by fostering an innovative, competitive and en- trepreneurial economy, and – by investing in Research and Development.In the longer term, a growing economy and expand- ing workforce will enable us to continue the progress started in the 1960s. People A demographically balanced, growing population and economy creating a sustain- able economic foundation for all regions. Multicultural, diverse and thriving communities. Innovation An innovative economy and population creating higher-value activity. Capital An environment that is attractive to private-sector investment and that encourages us to invest locally. Infrastructure World-class infrastructure supports economic and social objectives. Agility The focus on agility means that New Brunswick is known across North America as an excellent location in which to invest. We have an economy providing opportunities for all. Deeper dive: Taking control of our destiny Sometimes it feels, as individuals, communities and a and Minto, how we address these challenges will province, that events outside our control are shaping determine our future. To us, they mean everything. and national economic forces, we have to realize We must take control of our collective destiny. If that no one else is coming to our rescue. In Paris, we are to achieve the vision for our province in the Shanghai, Mumbai, New York, Toronto and even Ot-long term, it will be our decisions – as individuals, tawa, our challenges do not show up on the radar. families, business owners, community leaders and But in Saint John, Beresford, Edmundston, Riverview government – that will make it happen. The New Brunswick Economic Growth Plan 6 August 2016 growth ͵ economic Brunswick. ǞƚƓγƷ ĬĻ ĻğƭǤ LƷ in New The path back to 2 Plan government? provincial economy circa 2016 New Brunswick Growth is the role of Economic and demographic trendsGreen shoots in 2016Growing the workforceEncouraging investment and entrepreneurshipBoosting innovationThe A few thoughts on the Saint John CMA economy State of the The path back to economic growthWhat Presentation overview 3 STATE OF THE ECONOMY CIRCA 2016 4 since the longest period of Great Depression economic stagnation We are in the 5 NBers shrinking. workforce is The provincial young Business per year. continues unabated. down by $1B investment is Outward migration of Not Greece, but since 2008. dropped by has 9,000 Total employment GDP ratio almost in the early 1990s. back to its current Public (GNB) debt to era high water mark to Brunswick economy. Depression. since the Great longest period of early 2000s. economic stagnation the level of the New Brunswick is in the dropped back R&D spending has New 6 across struggling to the biggest the province. find workers Many industries are are calcifying. already Attitudes toward economic development be in decline. may also Entrepreneurship even as 80,000 to to economic growth. 1970s. decline. median age the provincial workforce is in Over decade since the early nearly doubled retire in the next The The demographic challenge could be barrier 7 217 2009-2014 2,933 growth 1991-2008 5,850 Average annual labour market 0030 and 0003. - 1976-1990 Period Recession - 0.1%Post - 2009-2014 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 379 recession real GDP - % +2.1 1993-1998 growth rates % +3.6 1985-1989 Average annual post The link between workforce growth/decline and GDP growth 8 CanadaNew Brunswick 2014 2012 54 years (%) 2010 - 2008 2006 0001. - 2004 051 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 84.3 77.9 1988 Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 90858075706560 Labour market participation rate: 25 9 July 2016). - Second fastest employment growth among the 10 provinces (July 2015Among the strongest average weekly earnings growth over the past year.Solid boost in tourist traffic so far in 2016.But, capital expenditures down again in 2016.Forecasted GDP growth will be well below the 1.9% in 2015. Green shoots in 2016? 10 A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE SAINT JOHN ECONOMY CIRCA 2016 11 CAN 14.4% 2015) - NB 3.6% 2.9% SJ CMA Cumulative GDP growth (2006 12 3) 74 34 71 ( 33 Net 29th migration intraprovincial 9 5 9)8) 67) - (( ( Net 33rd migration interprovincial 294749 3844 20th Immigrants 0057. - 252827 1230 25th growth Natural population 2015) - John rank out of 33 CMAs) St. John'sHalifaxMoncton Saint JohnMedian (33 CMAs) Saint ( Average annual population growth by component (2011 Per 10,000 population Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 051 13 0008. - Labour Market Assessment: Saint John CMA Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282 14 0008. - Labour Market Assessment: Saint John CMA Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282 15 specific - based industries, geography - Address gaps across the spectrum What are we really good at?Resource industries, knowledgeattributes Focus on growing the workforceStrengthen the value proposition for business investmentPromote an innovation agendaThe importance of urban growthFind our place in the world The path back to economic growth 16 %%%%%%% %%% Matter +40+41+29+46+27+75+40+38+42+40 and over Persons reporting income of $50,000 : Wages 8%7%4% 16%11%17%18%17%22%21% --- ------- $35,000 income of under Persons reporting migration - CA - John CMA New Brunswick Moncton Saint FrederictonBathurstMiramichiCampbelltonEdmundstonNon Canada and under reporting income of less than $35,000 per year and $50,000+ Percentage change between 2008 and 2014 in the number of persons aged 35 Source: Statistics Canada. Addressing youth out 17 to struggle starting are (seasonality, mobility, skills for services and boost local our workforce needs. oriented industries an important source of entrepreneurs, ideas - drive up demand key to addressing ther industries too). o ( Many of our key, export finding workers The unemployment rate is still too high but there are many reasons why alignment, etc.)Immigration will be Immigration will also be and investment.Immigration will also economies around the province. Immigration and economic renewal 18 immigrants. it is 47%. of all workers in New it is over 50%. Vancouver Toronto 5 percent In In sector are first generation Less than 19 are that immigrants generation first utilities occupations Share of workers in manufacturing and Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey (2011). 20 Employment trend: Administrative services 56 21 46 1,000 immigrant families spending average household income creates enough demand to support 1,500 jobs across the province*. 26 25 16 16 10 9 6 5 2 2 Doctors Lawyers Dentists Engineers Architects Electricians School teachers Auto mechanics Registered nurses Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey (2011). Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists Accountants and investment professionals Managers in financial and business services Immigrants drive demand for local services and high wage occupations *assuming four persons per immigrant family. Assumes the current labour force distribution would be the same for the incremental 1,000 families. 22 98% 93% 90% 89% 48% 44% 26% 22% 21% 13% Calgary Toronto Moncton Montreal Saint John Vancouver Burnaby, BC Northeast NB Markham, ON Northwest NB since the mid 19th Century ğƷ ƌĻğƭƷ Canadian. Percentage of that is the population third generation Brunswick 23 ? RIGHT ROLE FOR WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT 24 . competitiveness everything cannot be controlled by provincial governments a great place to live and set up a business from the value of the Canadian dollar to technological change - put the conditions in place so that enterprising people positive environment for entrepreneurship and business in infrastructure to boost things development of the workforce Many and market forces The Creating a investment. Investing Promoting NB as However, government does influence many business investment drivers We can help and places can succeed. The Role of Government 25 . The actions we take to foster agility and nimbleness investments we make into public and private strategic The . The actions we take to grow our provincial workforce now and The actions we take as a government to attract investment from : The actions we take to expand our capacity for innovation. People ensure its continued growth into the future.Ideas. Money. the private sector.Infrastructure infrastructure to boost our competitiveness as a province. Nimble government. in the public sector and across our economy THE FIVE PILLARS: The New Brunswick Growth Plan 26 . approach to economic development based - works closely with industry and community partners to identify new opportunities Government and develop specific economic opportunities where we have advantages, attributes and strengths that can be exploited The The New Brunswick Growth Plan 27 Questions? August 2016 Growth and Community Development Services State of the Saint John Economy Interpreting Data 2 Introduction: Data Sources John Industrial Parks Saint John Human Development Council Enterprise Saint JohnDiscover Saint University of New BrunswickFinance and Administrative Services and various City staff 3 Introduction: Force Major TrendsGeography and BudgetLabourEconomic ActivityHousingPopulationEducationIncome Types of Data 4 Introduction: Saint John compared to Moncton and Fredericton) is shifting in various areasSaint John outperforms New Brunswick in several key areasThe economy is dominated by exports, industry, manufacturingGDP growth has been stagnantSaint John has alarming poverty and lone parent family ratesAging housing stockHomeownership is relatively affordable compared to other cities 5 Major Trends: demographics Canada based - New Brunswick in university enrolment in Atlantic John demographics mirror New Brunswick Saint Decline remainder of CanadaNew Brunswick relies on the Canadian dollar being low because the economy is exportCities are leading the province on the majority of economic indicators 6 Major Trends: downturn Canada 2011 National Household Survey Still recovering from economic Urbanization is a common trend across CanadaMissing or incomplete data due to the replacement of the Census with the World oil prices continue to impact on the value of the Canadian dollar 7 Major Trends: Area Comparison 8 Geography: Federal Transfers Provincial Transfers Federal and Provincial Funding $0.00 Intergovernmental Transfers : $5,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00$35,000,000.00$30,000,000.00$25,000,000.00$20,000,000.00$15,000,000.00$10,000,000.00 City of Saint John 9 Budget Source: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Saint John 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 Tax Base Growth 9,000,000,0008,000,000,0007,000,000,0006,000,000,0005,000,000,0004,000,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,000,000,000 Government of New Brunswick 10 Budget: Source: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Moncton 2010 2009 Saint John 2008 2007 2006 0 Tax Base Growth 9,000,000,0008,000,000,0007,000,000,0006,000,000,0005,000,000,0004,000,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,000,000,000 Government of New Brunswick 11 Budget: Source: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Fredericton 2011 2010 Moncton 2009 2008 2007 Saint John 2006 0 Tax Base Growth 9,000,000,0008,000,000,0007,000,000,0006,000,000,0005,000,000,0004,000,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,000,000,000 Government of New Brunswick 12 Budget: Source: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Fredericton 2011 Government of New Brunswick 2010 Source: Moncton 2009 2008 2007 Saint John 2006 2005 Equalization/Unconditional Grant $0 $5,000,000 $25,000,000$20,000,000$15,000,000$10,000,000 13 Budget: Saint John100+ municipalities 0% 3 Equalization/Unconditional Grant 70% 2014 unconditional/equalization grant Government of New Brunswick 14 Budget: Source: Employment Comparative Employment Force: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 15 Labour Source: St. Stephen, 2015 - Breakdown Force Survey Force: Labour Labour Force by Sector, Saint John Stats Canada 16 Labour 86420 141210 Source: 20112012201320142015 St. Stephen - Breakdown Force Survey Force: Labour Force by Sector, Saint John Labour Stats Canada 17 Labour 86420 141210 Source: CMAs 28 equivalent GDP Growth in Canada. a year through 2020 will be to 25th out of 1.2% Saint of growth between 2011 Conference Board of Canada 18 Economic Activity: Source: 1.6% 1.2% 1% GDP Growth APEC: Board of Canada: New Brunswick, 2016 Forecasted GDP Growth C.D. Howe Institute: Conference 19 Economic Activity: this year. 5% in 2015. It is Major Projects 2016 29% expected to grow an by in New Brunswick grew Major project spending additional APEC Major Projects (2016) 20 Economic Activity: Source: Saint JohnHalifax 2015 2014 Port 2013 2012 2011 Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) 0 50,000 500,000450,000400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000150,000100,000 Port Saint John 21 Economic Activity: Source: Saint JohnHalifax 2015 2014 2013 Port Total Tonnage 2012 2011 0 5,000,000 35,000,00030,000,00025,000,00020,000,00015,000,00010,000,000 Port Saint John 22 Economic Activity: Source: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Total Overnight Visitors Tourism Visitors 2009 2008 2007 Total Visitors 2006 0 800000600000400000200000 18000001600000140000012000001000000 Discover Saint John, Statistics Canada, Ron Cunningham and 23 Economic Activity: Source: Saint JohnHalifax Saint JohnHalifax 2015 2015 2014 2014 Tourism 2013 2013 Cruise Ship Calls Cruise Ship Passengers 2012 2012 2011 2011 0 0 Cruise Saint John 50 24 Economic Activity: 150100 300000200000100000 Source: 2015 2014 2013 2012 Fredericton 2011 2010 Moncton Airport 2009 Airport Passengers 2008 Saint John 2007 2006 0 800000700000600000500000400000300000200000100000 Saint John Airport 25 Economic Activity: Source: Development 26 Economic Activity: Development 27 Economic Activity: Cost of Living Comparative Cost of Living Saint John CMA Relative to New Brunswick Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 28 Economic Activity: Source: Renters 61% 39% Owners Fredericton Renters 60% 40% Moncton Owners Homeownership Rates 2011 National Household Survey Homeownership Renters 57.4% National Household Survey (Census) 42.6% Owners Saint John Stats Canada 29 Housing: Source: EastWestNorthSouth Oct. 2015 Oct. 2014 Rental Vacancy Rates Oct. 2013 Vacancy Rate : 8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00% 14.00%12.00%10.00% CMHC 30 Housing Source: EastWestNorthSouth Oct. 2015 Saint John Oct. 2014 Average Rents Rental Cost Oct. 2013 : $740$720$700$680$660$640$620$600$580 CMHC 31 Housing Source: 7.4% 15.6% 24.6% Canada Canada Canada Before 1960 in Last 10 Years 9.8% 13.8% 26.7% New Brunswick New Brunswick New Brunswick Housing Stock Built Housing Requiring Major Repairs Housing Stock Built Age of Housing Stock 8.5% 9.9% 43.4% National Household Survey (Census) Saint John Saint John Saint John Stats Canada 32 Housing: Source: differential John Canada 9.2% Saint - +35.5% 44.4% In Perspective : House Price Change in Last 5 Years Globe and Mail 33 Housing Source: 30% Best Practice 47.1% Canada July 2016 in GrowSJ folder 119.5% July 2016 Vancouver 71.7% Toronto July 2016 Costs as % of Median Household Income 2016 In Perspective 29% Halifax July Insert picture of houses in Subdivision Ownership CMHC 34 Housing: 27.5% July 2016 Saint John Source: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Properties Sold 2006 0 500 30002500200015001000 Number of Properties Sold in Greater Saint John Saint John Real Estate Board 35 Housing: Source: 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Average Sale $0.00 Average MLS Sale for Greater Saint John $80,000.00$60,000.00$40,000.00$20,000.00 $200,000.00$180,000.00$160,000.00$140,000.00$120,000.00$100,000.00 Saint John Real Estate Board 36 Housing: Source: Saint JohnRemainder of CMARothesay - QuispamsisGrand Bay - Westfield 2015 2014 Average MLS Sale 2013 Average Sale $0 $50,000 $300,000$250,000$200,000$150,000$100,000 CMHC 37 Housing: Source: 2015 2014 2013 2012 Fredericton 2011 2010 Moncton 2009 Multiple Unit Starts 2008 Saint John 2007 Multiple Unit Starts 2006 0 800600400200 1600140012001000 CMHC 38 Housing: Source: CitiesCities Urban New Brunswick Census Where We LiveWhere We Live Stats Canada Population: Source: RuralUrban 19% Canada 81% RuralUrban Rural New Brunswick : 48% Census 2011 rural and urban population percentage New Brunswick 52% Stats Canada 40 Population Source: 2012-13 2011-12 Migration 2010-11 2009-10 Net Natural Increase Migration and Natural Growth : Saint John Population Growth 2008-09 0 500400300200100 -100-200-300-400-500 Government of New Brunswick 41 Population Source: 2012-13 2011-12 Migration 2010-11 2009-10 Net Natural Increase Migration and Natural Growth Saint John CMA Population Growth 2008-09 0 800600400200 -200-400-600-800 1000 Government of New Brunswick 42 Population: Source: 2013 - 40 John CMA - Saint John +1324 Saint In Perspective Census Total Population Growth 2008 Stats Canada 43 Population: Source: Components of Change Census Components of Saint John Population Change Stats Canada 44 Population: Source: Saint John - St. Stephen 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Immigrant Landings 2008 Immigration 2007 2006 Census 2005 0 900800700600500400300200100 1000 Stats Canada 45 Population: Source: Saint John - St. StephenMonton - Richibucto 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Immigrant Landings 2008 Immigration 2007 2006 Census 2005 0 900800700600500400300200100 1000 Stats Canada 46 Population: Source: Saint John - St. StephenMonton - RichibuctoFredericton - Oromocto 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Immigrant Landings 2008 Immigration 2007 2006 Census 2005 0 900800700600500400300200100 1000 Stats Canada 47 Population: Source: 2014 2013 Refugees 2012 2011 2010 2009 Economic Immigrants 2008 2007 Immigration 2006 Family Class 2005 Category of Immigrants (New Brunswick) 0 500 2500200015001000 Government of New Brunswick 48 Population: Source: Aging demographics Elderly Population Ratio Share of Population Aged 65 and Older Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada 49 Population: Source: 2031 2031 - 2026 2021 2016 Projections 2011 2006 Population Projection for the City of Saint John 2006 50 Population: Assumes 14% population growth, 10K more people, 25% more jobs in Saint John by 2031 80000750007000065000600005500050000 Source: Strategic Projections Inc. CanadaAnglophone, NBFrancophone, NB lowest in Canada - 64% 56% Literacy Below Level 3 Literacy, 2014 48.5% are the second Percentage of New Brunswick Population Ranks Achieve Literacy 51 Education: Source: 5% 13%23%12%21%26% 2011 Canada 2% 23%31%11%19%14% 23%31%14% 2011 Saint John below the or degree Attainment National Household Survey (Census) high school Level of Educational Attainment Less than High School diplomaTrades certificateCollege diplomaUniversity certificate or diplomabachelor levelUniversity certificate, diploma, Statistics Canada 52 Education: Source: All Atlantic Canadian Universities University Enrolment UNBSJ Atlantic Canada, University Enrolment 5.00%0.00% -5.00% 15.00%10.00% -10.00%-15.00%-20.00% University of New Brunswick 53 Education: Source: Master'sBachelor's2-yr DiplomaHigh School<High School Career at Education Level by $63,800 Income Midpoint in New Brunswick $49,900 Average Income by Education $34,200 $23,700 Average $17,800 University of New Brunswick 54 Income: Source: Saint JohnMonctonNew BrunswickCanada ncome 2013 I 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Household Income Median Annual Household 2006 Statistics Canada 55 Income: $80,000$75,000$70,000$65,000$60,000$55,000$50,000 Source: CPI Saint John Incomes Growth of Income v Cost of Living 6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00% Growth of Incomes in Saint John vs. Increases in Cost of Living Statistics Canada 56 Income: Source: since 2005. centre Single Parent Households any Canadian urban : Saint John has had the single parent families of lowest income levels for Statistics Canada 57 Income Source: 31.0%19.5% Child Poverty Rate Overall Poverty Rate Poverty AT, 2011 - : LIM - 58 Income Source: Stats Canada time growth - play in defining should Lessons Learned the combination of incremental and dramatic oneorder to effectively respond, an intentional and purposeful effort, on a variety of fronts, will be required (no silver bullet)Demographic trends cannot be ignored Consider what role Common Council growth, and consequently, generating growth 59 Conclusion: horizon Reasons to be optimistic projects on the scale - Saint John, Moncton, Fredericton are three of the top four most cost competitive cities in Canada to do business (KPMG)LargeContinued investment into urban core (Smart Growth)Recent drop in unemployment rate in Saint John 60 Conclusion: Defining Growth 61 Conclusion: requires: older industrial cities Defining Growth - agenda for The Brookings Institution (2007) - 62 Conclusion: Must make the competent, clean, transparent, and Moving reform technologically savvy administration of government operations and services their highest priority, with the goal of creating a healthy and receptive climate for business growth and retention. At the same time, they must also work to build strong coalitions of innovative thinkers, actors, and stakeholders to develop and implement a competitive, long Staff Advice of economic reality monitoring, evaluation and adaptability Acceptance Common Council leading changeStrategic planningOngoing 63 Conclusion: 1.2.3.4.5. Next Steps 64 Conclusion: